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Jul
Election Projection Database Update (7/17)
Okay, with a slew of polls that have come out since the dead period of the July 4th holiday, many of our Electoral Projection/Electoral Map sites have updated their latest Electoral College predictions, including us here at 3BD. These polls included some battleground polling in Oregon, North Carolina, South Carolina, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Michigan among others. These polls have changed the maps and projected numbers for many, most heavier for DEM Barack Obama.
The Election Projection Mock Database now includes 65 electoral college projection sites. Of those 65 sites, 40 have been updated in July and 23 have been updated within the last 5 days, pretty impressive.
We here at 3BD don’t just provide you a one stop shop for the most updated Electoral College projection, but from time to time, we also MUNCH all those projection sites together with average numbers for Barack Obama and John McCain. Here are you current munched average and changes from the last munch, which was July 10th.
Barack Obama: 293.3 (+4.2)
John McCain: 212.6 (-1.8)
Tossup: 28.1 (-6.4)
As you can tell but the numbers, Obama’s movement mostly came from Tossups moving toward Obama. Those could have been North Carolina or Michigan changes.
One thing is clear … there are more states in play this Presidential election than the last 3 or 4. Although the Nationals polls, well, at least some of them, have this a very close race (such as rasmuseen daily), the state polls are not showing that same closeness. At least for now, in a overwhelming majority of Projection maps and sites, Obama’s lead is comfortable and growing. The fact that sites like North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina are in play is simply mind boggling. It will be an interesting summer, so stay tuned here to 3BD for the latest state by state polling and our Electoral Projection Database updates.
