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Nov
Hey, we just had to …
Alot of you laughed, some of you asked us to put Interested American’s electoral college projection back in the Electoral Projection Database when it was accidentally removed. So we did, and here is their final projection from 11/4/08.
Here is the rationale… (Italics for Emphasis, Bold Type is our Response)
1. Averaging out the state by state polls. (This is the base where I start from, but it is useless unless the following points are also taken into consideration) We are still trying to determine what polls they used.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant, bi-poller as another, more famous blogger with the initials AJS likes to say). “Oversampling” was DEAD ON
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning AND advertising in down the stretch. This has been my number 1 factor. Their internal polls are more accurate than media polls, and the best way to get a window on the internal polls is to see where the candidates are putting their money where their mouth is, and also where they are putting their boots on their feet. Couple points to address. First, candidate advertising and campaigning means nothing when both candidates are visiting the same state and advertising in the same states. How can you say that when you gave NC to McCain and Obama outspent McCain 8 to 1. If you wanna use it as a model, then use it accurately. Your model does not work though considering Obama outspent McCain in GA, but lost GA. Second, the model was flawed because down the stretch, Obama advertised more than McCain and visited more than McCain, in Ohio, but you gave Ohio to McCain. If you want to make it a number 1 priority, then do it right. Third, you model doesn’t work because of baiting. Obama baited McCain to come into PA and waste his resources no he had the state locked up. It is called — being tricked. PA was NOT EVEN CLOSE! Finally, if you did have access to internal polls, which i am sure you did not, that pollster should be fired immediately, because they were dead wrong.
4. Including an increased Black turnout. What? And McCain still wins big? Did you think African-Americans would vote for McCain? They didn’t.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote. Huh? Again, they turned out like never before, but for the wrong guy eh? The GOP will struggle form here on as long as they continue to be controlled by the extreme elements of the party that are simply out of touch with mainstream America. The neo-con movement is dead as dead gets.
6. Voter fraud. ACORN. Walking Around Money. etc… What about all the GOP Fraud? Was that factored in? Was the Supreme Court’s ability to steal an election a factor?
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)…I don’t believe it will be zero, but to play it safe I have been using a low number. Many liberals themselves have warned of up to around a 6 pt. Bradley Effect. So I’m using a pretty conservative number. You forgot the other Effect. The Reverse Bradley Effect that took place. Bradley Effect is DEAD!
All in all, nice try.
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Pimp slap!
November 6th, 2008 at 5:07 pmI am interested in what he was smoking
November 6th, 2008 at 5:10 pm